Monday, May 2, 2011

Monday Morning Quarterback

The NFL Draft.

The objective of which through public spectacle or display, NFL organizations seek opportunities to improve the quality of  their team through the selection of highly talented college football players that will ultimately help them win the Super Bowl.  Its all business. Right? Well not exactly. It's as much about marketing and entertainment as it is anything else. What was once a non-televised weekday afternoon event is now a prime time televised extravaganza and this year was no different. While the uncertainty of the NFL lockout looms overhead, it did not stop fans from gravitating toward Radio City like moths to a light bulb, while the rest of us around the country tuned in to ESPN to get a peek at which of this year's crop of collegiate football players were heading to the NFL. 

The draft, which concluded on Saturday was filled with the usual oohs and ahhs from fans sitting in the gallery. Also included were the typical divisive chants that usually mark the event when teams trade up and down the draft board or reach for some unheralded or unknown player from an obscure school when higher rated  or touted players are still available. For the football fanatic its an event that fills your heart with delight (the Patriots) or breaks it with bitter disappointment (the Raiders). It's a time  of year when fans are filled with the hope that this year their team strikes draft gold. That this year their team is going to ride those magical draft picks to the promised land! Well that may be true for some organizations as clearly some teams come away as draft winners while others, well, not so much. 

So, the question then is who was this year's big winners and losers? Well, we're not going to speculate. The newspapers and sports blogs are filled with the post-mortem analysis and draft grades from individuals who are very well informed, the so-called experts. But even their grades are often highly subjective to fit their views as is human nature. The truth be told, it's impossible to really know. Only the facts can bare out who had a great draft and who did not and that could take years.  And so, instead of offering our own grading, we"ll just try to put things into perspective.

It's true, that if your football team is a savvy organization with a well thought out draft philosophy, you can build a winner in a hurry. But if not, it could take years to find your way out of the desert (think Raiders). There are no first round guarantees. For every Walter Payton (1975) Earl Campbell (1978), Anthony Munoz (1980), Lawrence Taylor (1981) and Peyton Manning (1998), there is a Ryan Leaf (1998), Blair Thomas (1990), Heath Schuler (1994), Tim Couch (1999) and Curtis Enis (1998). Does anyone remember Art Schlichter (1982) or Andre Ware (1990)? Want some more? How about JaMArcus Russell, Alex Smith and DeWayne Robertson? All high first round busts. It would be perfectly understandable if Carolina Panthers fans hold their breath for Cam Newton. Based on past draft history, it would not be implausible that five years from now we remember him as an afterthought. But do not fret. If you live in a city where your team drafted Johnny Noname out of the University of Nowhereville with their first pick, keep the faith as there is still hope. Because it's not who your team drafts in rounds one, two or three. It's how they draft in rounds four through seven that makes the difference. Throughout the history of the draft, it's the organizations that scored big in the later rounds that experience the most success.

Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round of the 2000 draft. That might go down as the greatest selection ever. But did the Patriots really know what they had when they made the pick? Terrell Davis was another great pick, also in the sixth round (1995). So was Shannon Sharpe, seventh round (1990), Richard Dent, eight round, Roger Staubach, tenth round (1964) and Deacon Jones, fourteenth round (1961). All great selections. More recently, but not yet in the class of those mentioned above, Ahmad Bradshaw, drafted in the seventh round (2007).

So I guess my point is that assessing talent is so subjective. There are so many human variables (too many to mention) that influence who is going to make it in the NFL and who is not. Then there are the undrafted college players in the secondary market. The moment the draft is over, general managers flock to them trying to scoop up that one player they had their eye on that they hope no one else noticed.. It's where many GMs earn their living. Over the years there have been several diamonds in the rough that really solidified NFL rosters. In fact there are fourteen players in the NFL Hall of Fame that were never drafted. Among them are Warren Moon and John Randle.

Kurt Warner was another undrafted player. So was Nick Lowery, Antonio Gates, Preist Holmes, Tony Romo and Adam Vinatieri to name a few. These players were or still are  major contributors to their teams success. And just how important is looking beyond the draft to these unheralded players? Well, consider this for example. The New York Giants signed Jim Burt (1981), Zeke Mowatt (1983), Shaun O'Hara (2000) and acquired Antonio Pierce from the Redskins in 2005. All four undrafted players helped them win not one, but two Super Bowls. Of the four, only Mowatt was not a starter.

Keep the faith.

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