Thursday, July 10, 2008

Jones Quest For .400 Is Likely Over

Well now that Chipper Jones has cooled off slightly, I believe his chances of hitting .400 are virtually zero. So let's take a look at the math. As of today, Jones has 108 hits in 288 at bats through 80 games played. His average is .375. That means Jones has been averaging 3.6 at bats per game. The Braves have played 92 games so that means there are only 70 games left to play this season. If he were to play all 70 games, he would get approximately 252 more at bats (70 x 3.6). That would mean that Jones would finish the season with about 540 total at bats (288 + 252). For Jones too finish at .400, he would need to finish the season with 216 hits (216 / 540). Since he has 108 at this point, that means he would need 108 more hits in the next 252 at bats. In other words, Jones who is already hitting a phenomenal .375, would have to hit a whopping (and unsustainable) .429 the rest of the season. To me, this just seems like one of the records that are destined to never be broken. Since 1941, the year in which Ted Williams was the last person to hit .400 (he hit .406), there have been several players who have made runs at .400, including Nomar Garciaparra who, 2000, was hitting .403 as late as July 20. But he like all the rest eventually failed. Here are the three players since 1941, who finished the season within striking distance of the elusive club.

Tony Gwynn - 1994 - finished at .394
George Brett - 1980 - finished at .390
Rod Carew - 1977 - finished at .388

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